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ࡪҽ

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http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4bbb74a5010099yh.html

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ɣ桱ԡһ㻪ܰû٢ΪҽĴơơ

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Щ˵Ӧʷʵ鹹񻯡

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1930дһƪġ־ܳ廪٢̹¡֤ࣺ

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Դͷ粡ɱ֮Ȿǡ塷С˵ԣȫ
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    ͳҽѧԱҽҽҽ̧ۣ˵ԽԽܰ
סһҲСִҽѧ෴Դš¶ޣԽ
˵Խšֻɾǿѧһ֡ѧҡҽ
ҪпѧʷѧҲӦпѧвäĿšʷļأ
ЩΥʶͿѧ֪ʶļظšûпѧҲǹѧʦ
ӹʷѧҵڡ

2008.5.11

(XYS20080526)

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ֹȻáԤԤǿ

ߣAmsel

19ǰ󣬵ϵͳȺ󷢲ǿԤʱ䡢ص㡢Ҫ
뱸ǲɣѾʶ޷Ԥô֮
Ծȡ׼ȷԤͻƣ˥ǿԽԽ
ΪС¼ز⵽ĸϢ𲻶ϲҵ仯
ԶӦһǿ𡣴һǶȿ׼ȷԤǿûжٿԡ
ԱڸֵĵԤպƲ⣬ϵͳпǸݡ
ԤСȷԤġ

ȵйϢϡԤרҡ19~20ԤĽ
ܣֹȻרгԤǣ봨8.0
͵ĵ519ʮ壬19~20 
һֵ⣬ʷ9ǰǿ
ΣԽϴ󡣡http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/liujie522.htm

һҵóԤİ档ԭ
ҪݾȻϣǴΧͳݣͿԽ
Ҫؾ߱ĶԤһѵĽ轻ͨ¹ԵԤıǵ
ǣ·ڳķʱ70%°߷ڡ30%ʱ
䣬ôǵԤǣĳ¹ʶ෢·´°߷彫˭
ĵԤ

θԤġ׵͵һ˵
ʵԣԲοµоרҷ򶫺κƽ
ʵĶ̬20075ºϵġͳƷ
һģ
http://www.cea-igp.ac.cn/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%9C%B0%E9%9C% 
87%E5%8A%A8%E6%80%81/%E7%89%B9%E5%88%AB%E6%8E%A8%E8%8D%90/%E5%86%AF%E5
%90% 91%E4%B8%9C.pdfоһɹҪٵ֪ʶֻҪеͳ
㹻ˣһͼ2ͼ4ͿԷ֣νշ
ڣĸҲڵ뵥
νġ𡱣ٿõJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH
ƪף107B102211ҳhttp: 
//www.agu.org/journals/jb/jb0210/2001JB001577/ֻͬҪÿֱͼ
Ϳˣһͼ78 13Щӷĸͬ
ӵ·ڽͨ¹ʵı֡Ǹ
˵ҲûҪȥ֤ˡ

벻ֱ֮£ԤĵҲҪӲϹδ
֤ϣòǿصͳ֣ȫһ
жԤǰʲôѹְʦ˼
йԤ˲ˣλԤԤǿ
δʦ һߡ̴ʦġɹԡԲװ
ﻹ֪ôѷصʵĳһġ

ͳԤ𣬺ǰѷעĳ
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йĸҪˣǰѲڷϣ
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سϣһԤĵٺǵĳɹ
ģǶ׼ȷĶԤͷ

(XYS20080526)

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СϼӾƽѧת

ߣBulak

봨֮󣬲֪ʲôڳһƪ06귢ĹڵԤģ
ΪֲΪݣһвΪߺȡ

 ֺѧ
Journal of Catastrophology
죺 ʡ
ڣ 
أʡ
֣ 
 16
ISSN 1000-811X
CN 61-1097/P
꣺1986
йڿԴ
ASPTԴ
йڿԴ
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ӣƪ Study on Earthquake Tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan Region 
Based on Commensurability
 Сϼ; Ӿƽ; ﻢ; ;
Ӣ LONG Xiao-xia; YAN Jun-ping; SUN Hu and WANG 
Zu-zhengThe College of Tourism and Environment; Shaanxi Normal 
University; Xi`an 710062; China;
ߵλ ʦѧ뻷ѧԺ; ʦѧ뻷ѧ
Ժ ; ;
׳ ֺѧ, Journal of Catastrophology, ༭ 2006 
03
ڿASPTԴ йڿ CJFD¼
ؼʡ ; ; ɹ; Ԥ;
ӢĹؼʡ Sichuan-Yunnan region; earthquake disaster; 
commensurability; tendency prediction;
ժҪ Ϊҹ½ǿ,Ƶڶ
ǿֺݷĻ,ӦԪԪԪɹȷֱԤ
˸õ()οܷǿ,ԱܸõϷֹ
ӢժҪ Sichuan-Yunnan region is prone to strong and high 
frequent earthquakes.Based on the data analysis of earthquake 
disasters in Sichuan-Yunnan region,the tendency of the next strong 
earthquake(s) is predicted by commensurability of ternary,quaternion 
and quintuple,for the purpose of disaster prevention and reduction.
 ѧѧоش⹥Ŀ(04JZD00010); 
ĿѧصоشĿ(05jjd770013)
DOI cnki:ISSN:1000-811X.0.2006-03-017

Ҳ֪ĤλŮжƪģ֪
չǲ濼ġ

дòһ⣬һҳǰǳģмļ
ظݶΣȻΪ˴Ҳûʲôֵģǹ
ڸѧ̫ˣˮƽһģйͳһǿˡ

²˸еȣϾѾǼֵ߲顣Ҹ
ȵǣһѧεĺӾȻԤǣȻ֪ɹ
ңƪľȻشĿ

˵Сϼѧεĺ˵㣬˶ʱԴ뻷רҵڱ
ƣпϵ˵ǻѧôеֺѧʦ
ѧ뻷ѧԺĻѧǸʲôרҵأ뿴棺

Ŀ꣺רҵͨĻѧרҵμйؿγ̵ѧϰʹѧ
ջѧĻۣ֪ʶͻĻܣ
Իѧ˲ҪΪý͸ƻ
ڿлߵԺУҵλŴ¿нѧ
ʤλн裬ҵԴҵͲ
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ƣѧֺѧѧͨѧ ̬ѧ
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ۣǨԴ뻷ȿγ̡
ҵ򣺱רҵѧϵͳѧϰջѧרҵĻ֪ʶܻ
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ҵʺڿлߵԺУҵλŴ¿Уѧ
ȾǽеĻ滮
뻷ѧԺרҵܣ
http://geog.snnu.edu.cn/news/view.asp?id=383

ҲʦֺˮƽǺԣСϼ
ʡЩоĿγ̶ûѧԤѾԶԶ
Χ

ôƾʲôԤ𣿵ȻΪʦƪĵĵڶӾ
ƽôӾƽҲ

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̬ƶȴ¡ȡȺڡѧȿ﷢50ƪ
http://geog.snnu.edu.cn/news/view.asp?id=626

ԣӾƽѧʿʿѧԤġѧһҲ
ûнܹоĻͼĽҵʹù
ۻԤļ󣬵Ǻźֻ

ʷչݱ̵ĻϣҪȻֺ򻷾仯
򿪷Ƚоʷֺ¼ڹڽ翪չֺѧ
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ʱѧϵ֣̽ʷоΪáԭ
򿪷о⼰仯ľ֣̽
̬򡱵Ľ飬Ϊʵʩ󿪷սԼ̬ṩ֧֡
http://geog.snnu.edu.cn/news/view.asp?id=626

ʷֺ¼ڹڽ翪չֺѧоо
Ϊֺ뻷仯ѭһʱɡʲô˼أ

ĲÿɹȷԤֵĸ˼·ԣӾƽ
ΪԼֺԤҪ

㣬СϼʵѾ˵úˣʦԤǸĲϵ
ͳо
http://zm.njnews.cn/html/2008-05/15/content_40884.htm

Ҳ֪ж֪ɹȷʲôѾкܶ
ĲԺʿˡ

ڿɹȷԼô˵ģ

ɹԡһѧġûܹ
˵ĻۣһֱϵдĳЩ֮С
ԤۻP47

Сϼֻ˵һ䣬ں䣬Ȼд

һԼͲۣȻԤ𡢺֡
ֵȸֵܷʲôѧ

ĲԺ̸˵˵¼
ĵ⡣

ƪкдţĿ

ѧѧоش⹥Ŀ(04JZD00010); Ŀѧ
صоشĿ(05jjd770013)

ôĿʲôأ

ӾƽڵĽǿԿĿơ

ӾƽȺֵĿĿйҹĿר⡰ɺ̬
ɳչģʽо(96-920-13-01)1999- 2002ʡȻѧ
ȫ仯¹ƽԭƶˮ̵Ļ뾭ЧӦо99D01
2000-2002ȻѧĿȫ仯ϱ
ȵıȽо400710052001-2003ѧĿ
е̬սо ¸ʵ֤(01BJY045)
2001-2002Ĵѧֽͬѧѧоش⹥
Ŀ÷չ̬ؽо⣨04JZD000102005-2007
ֽѧصо2004شĿ¸̬ƶ
;о05jjd7700132005-2007Ŀ
http://geog.snnu.edu.cn/news/view.asp?id=626

÷չ̬ؽо¸̬ƶ;о
ҪԤôѵҪһ£ԺЩط˵
ؽһƶ·˵Ӿƽڿ
Ļܵء֪Ƿ񻹿˻Ƿ˰˻ᡢδΣ
˶ԸõõӰ죿

ȻƪĲΪдġôƪΪʲô
شĿıǩ

ԭҶСϼΪ˶ʿоҪģʦ
Ŀͨƪ֮ԻᷢڡֺѧϣҲԭ
ӾƽǡֺѧıίԼѧĹûչˡ

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ˣľţȺǵЦˡ

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𱦷Ժʿ˵ľ仰

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۳ɽɵɸ

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200852422ʱ

ڴܻ֮кܶ߻᲻ұɽ̱ߣܿҪ
ˣԽ̱ԱĿѧƶѸٺسﻮǵ
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ܾͲ̱ԱĿѧרҵѾԱеƹʹܶԱ
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ԮѵһεʧغͲΧΪǿȴԮ
ΪشɽɽϿȣ֮Ŷ·Լɵ·
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ߣbiger

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㣬һð취ǿܴʹлȡʲô١ӵһ
޷ʹгԽҲǽ츸ܵʹӱǻҪ
ܣ츶˵ĴظӺܺҵģһ˹ġ
¶һʹгɳǵ徫Ӣǧ
һ׳͹ʹĶѭ츸˵ĿͲҪ
ӱܣܴһδʹгɳӿԿ

ᴹ׼ˣҲŹ׼ˡ

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ڵԤĿѧо̽ҪͶǮɹԤһ봨
ٵʧֲǰڵͶ룩Ҫټαѧ
⣩ǹٰл벢ֺֹ۲ݺмҪ
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ڱڵ෢ʯзеѱȷΪʺ
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ʵʩΪ飩ڡʺסĵס˿
Աس г ʡ ļЧ˹ҹ

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ڵͻìǴݣũģزϹҵĽ׼
淶쵼Լİ칫¥

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ε󣬴ҶᷢԼڿַַ֪ʶǷȱй˶
ӦýⷽĽӦռԵġԵģҪԺͽӦ
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ϵͳ˼˵ǲͷҽͷҽţռ
֪ʶֺռֵ֪ʶҪϵͳѧϰ
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⣬˻ԷҪһ춨Ϊȫϰգܼ
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ԮԱ봨ΪӵӺͱУǿԵ֪Ŀǰֳ
ԮԱ߿ȱɸ쵼ͽž쵣ΣӦ˵Ƕ
쵼ܣǲרҵֳԮԱЭϵԱʱЧ
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Ա;רҵԮ֪ʶ뼼ɵĽžսʿ

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ÿѷʱȺڶû׼ãôǲְģ
ÿе˿԰ȫֵġĻš

Ƿ֣ΪʹйΪǰ׼ˣǵҪ
ܶŬҲֻ֪ԸԼϲ飬߲
Ըȥᱻලͼ顣Ȼܻʽǽм
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ΪأڹҲ棬ÿᣬԱϹϾ蹦̵£
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죬һֱڹעɶš¼ϳƬĴ
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в鵽ִϢطΪһͻ
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Ҳ˵ܡ

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ѧʷѧϵһ˺ܶ˵ĵط

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˵ȤҾȻͨ˿֪ҵġ2001꣬ٴʷѧ
ϵҵʱдƪģСʷϵλ˿Ҳת
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˵ʵҶԷҵĸ𣬳˱лı֮⣬һϲ
ּͬҲϣʯ̨һΪԽԽйĸ
ʱ֮ȡûʲôʵɾ˵ĸɺǼɵĸɺ
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ƣܻͬͦõĴʻʱҶǵĲҲ
ԶڶԼȵߵĲΪǵԻڵȼȵ߸ǿ


ԭ˿̱ڱĵ÷мġ
ķʽԮ³Ѹ׷ĵһ֣͸λӡ
ߡԼһĲֻɺ桪

á

2008.05.25

עͣ

[1] μ
http://xys.dxiong.com/xys/netters/others/prose/beida_lishixi.txt
[2] μ
http://xys.dxiong.com/xys/ebooks/others/education/report/fanmeizhong.t
xt
[3] μhttp://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/Content/books/1/71920.shtml
[4] μҡһ̵ضɽҡ512봨ǡ
[5] μҡܵУͬѧһ
(http://cache.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/books/1/106814.shtml)

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á̰Ƿ񱻰ڹɷΧ

ߣҲ

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Ƽ۲ҪЩؿ˼·

ʷƽڵȥ԰ѵرĸε2090
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̨վ͸ˡEARTHSCOPEƻԤȫӵĵ̨վ
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ִּûǿ̨ܼǿ̨ںϴ¼ĸּ
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εһĴ봨𼶺еĹǴ
ʮʮӡҵʱҹ賿ڰ졣ѧϰ
ȽĿѧͼѧĹϵǿĵһ

(XYS20080526)

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̩ԤҪ֪Ѷ

Ƽ 

̩ѧңйѧԺԺʿ1962 ҵڱѧ
ϵ1966 ꣨оҵйѧԺой
ооԱѧռѧѧԺԺ
ʴزѧѧϻᣨIUGGִоίԱʡѧ
Journal of SeismologyйѧѧͨƼ
ѧίѧСӢİ棩ԡ࣬
ѧְ
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йصĿѧʮֹעرΪ׫Ľ֪ʶйʵļ
ڵ26~27ҳܱҲɷá

Ƽ1997Robert GellerScienceϷһƪģ
ǲԤġһ۵󣬶йѧڵԤоӰ

̩Gellerⳡ۲ʼ1997ģ1991
ⳡ۾Ѿʼˡ1997꣬3˺һƪ£Ϊ
Ԥ⡱˵ġԤ⡱ָԤ⡱Ԥͨ
Ϊڣ10ϣڣ110꣩ڣ1£ʱ
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С̡ٵԤĻҪǸҪΪֵģ߼ȲǺȷҲ
ȫͳһҹ10ꡢ20Ϊڡ1ΪڡΪ
ڣʮΪڹ⣬Ҳ10Ϊڡ
ΪڡΪڻֵġʵϣԤⷽõĵǰ
ʱ߶Ȳַ涨ķΧڣǿԽַ
ĽߡڹڵУרҵʿУԡԤ⡱͡Ԥ
ָ֣ͨͨľ˵ġԤ⡱ Geller
ΪԤ𣬴ӿѧ˵ʵ϶ûдﵽ
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ѧѧϻᣨIUGGִоίԱ֮һJacksonʱеԤ
оķ

ƼĻ۵ʲô
̩ǵĿЩΪԼѾ˵Ԥ˵
ɺ˲졣˵ҲʵԤʵϲûйءǣ
ҲͬɴĽۡ
ԤǹϵĿѧ⡣ôΪʲôôѣ
ԤҪ3㣺ڲġԡ
Ƶԡ̵ĸԡڲġԡǹϣ˵
һ˵ָĿǰ뵽ڸ¸ѹ״̬ĵ
̨վװ۲Դֱӽй۲⡣һϡٵġƵ
¼ĸʱ˵ִ۲ʱ䳤ö࣬
ΪһŹ۲ѧĵѧڶĹ۲ͶԾɵ֪ϵĽչ
ǷڼΪӵĵʻеһȻ, Ǹ߶ȷԵġ
Ϊӵ̡Ӧô֪ѧֵܲԤ⣬
̵ĿѧںǼ򵥵ع֮Ϊ˵Ԥ⣬֪ۡ
ȵȾˡ

ƼGellerȵ˼УǲҲڵԤҪѰ
˼·
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һʵ飬̫ԻˡԤопԿ
ĽչģȦɵ㡣رǣҶɴĽۺѹͬ
ǴӴѧĹ۵㡢վڷҵĽǶȿԤ⡣ڵġԤԡ
УǺרҶΪһ֡֯ٽ󡱣Ϊ
ѧ֯ٽĲԤԣǱΪǲԤģ
һΪȻԤѣǲԤģôӦ
ȥоӦתֻоһЩĿѧ⡢̿⡣
ǣǲһ֯ٽⲻһ
Խ⣡Ϊһ֯ٽ󣬲˵
һ֯ٽ󣡴⣬Ǵӵһ֡֯ٽ󡱵
һڿѧϲδȷĹ۵ŷȥоתֻо
һЩĿѧ⡢̿ĿҲǷ׵ģ
ѹͬ

ƼǣǲǶйоӰأΪ
˵۵Ժйĺܶ˾תļˣ
ȥԤ⡣
̩Ȼڹϻڹڣ˼Ѿת򡣵
ԤȻôѣһҲδδʲôĳɼ
е˿ܾҪתˡGellerôŵġȻĿǰԤ⣬
ȻĿǰ̽Ԥֶζ⣬GellerŴת
о
ȻоǺҪģпջᵼͻƣоͻ
ƱҲǺԤģGellerʧƫġԤͼȻ
ֺĽǶ˵ȻֺҪ취ȥоѰԤ
ֺİ취ҪŬȥ˷ѣ̽Ԥ;GellerЩ
ڷҵˣᡢܡڷչйҵǴһ
ԤͼȻֺ棬չйܲԴơչйҵ
ǾԸסڿܺܲķݣֻΪչйҼҵױǵľ
ס϶緢ҡҶԵԤĽԶ
緢չйҡڷңʹԤ⻹ûأԿͨͶ
롢߷ݵĿյԤͼֺʵЧ

ƼйΨһһ׼ȷԤ˵ҲǺǵȴҲ
˾Ǵɵġ
̩˵ɵģʵϣںǵ֮ǰӶԵ
ԵķӶԵ֮ǰα쳣ļ⣬رǵǰ˺ܶ
ǰйճɹԤεӦ˵ǵ
һյԤʵЧķʷġйԿ䣬
ȫѧ繫ϵġȻҲӦεԤĳɹǹȥ
۵һЩ飬ǾԤ
ǣǲģΪһľԡʱض
죬þԤķԤ뺣ǲԶɽһͻĲͬ
ǣǵԵǰɽȴûǰȻʱ򻪱
ĵ̨Զûôܼǻһļģ󾭷
֤ûзκοԿ쳣ǰԣþԤķԤ
ǲԶɽûгɹҪʵֵԤ⣬ͣھԤĽ
ΣҪоŪڹɡ

Ƽ봨ҿ˳ԤˡҼ
һ£ܶνԤʵҲǾԵģ˵ͳƲģǸ
ݸɺԤġЩ˻˵ǵЩһֱûѧ
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𰮺ߡżʼ顢ĸȵȣʱдŸң
ҷԤԤĳʱĳؽᷢЩź͵ʼҶ
Թעźǣûġ
ڶȻֺУرԱ棬ɵԱ
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ԱרκֻҪܰտѧɰ£ȥоȻǲ
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Ԥ⻹̽оĽ׶ΣҶһܺõ顣
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ǷרҵԱеԤİ취ӦõӣѧϰӦá

ƼôڵԤ⣬ýоʲôأ
̩ҶԵԤһֱǳֹ̬ȡ˵ҪѵԤ
򵥻Ҫ̫ˡҲоˣˣٻعͷ
ʵӣûʶ֮ǰڿȥǺѡܸ
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ѧҿڵ۲⣬Է򡢷Էǵȵ
¶ȡѹ١ȲԤˮƽԶȵԤˮƽߵöࡣ
ˣȻкܶ಻ĵطرͻֺ¼Ԥ

ǳѵԤäҿԤооԶ
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ƣݡڲڲǺܲȵģҲô
͸ѧڵϡڲ￴ä
󶼲磡Ҫ취ȥǿоǿоȾҪǿĹ۲⡣

Ƽڵ̨ܶǲǻ
̩ǣʲôΪʲôĿġ˵Ҫо̨
վļͿԴһ㣬ܶСһ㣬ԷֱʵҪԽһ㡣Ҫ
ǳһĵڲ˵ҪоؿǡϵᣣĿĲ̨ͬվܶȵ
Ҫֵˡ
˵ԤԤҪⶨܶĿǰ̨վܶȱȵ
̨վܶҪߵöࡣˣں̨ܶվܶȻǲܵġ

ƼǲгڵĵԤûУ
̩ԡҹڹϣгڵԤˮƽǱȽ
ߵģһ10ϣڣ110꣨ڣĳʱ֮ڣ
ǲпܷȽϴĵͨгڵԤһĿѧ
ҲǱȽϿסġҲǰٷ֮ٿɿôгڵ
Ԥ⻹ҪȶԤǿˡ

Ƽ봨ڶԵԤķӦԤҪ
⡣
̩ͨᣬƼڽͣʵǵ˵
Ԥ״1992д£Ѿ
ٱ档ע⵽ԽԽĹ۵ᷨǣ
Ҫǿǣ˽ԤΪ˿˷ѣҵѵ㣬Ū
ʲôطԱ֢ҩѲΪɻԵԤоĽڡ
ԤȷǺѵģΪѣҪеѧȥᡣ
ףõЩˣҪӭս֪Ѷ
رϣǿġ

(XYS20080526)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys.dxiong.com)(xys.dropin.org)(xys-reader.org)

ţձת

Ѱйڿѧ̬ձķʽϴֱ
ϰѹۣᳫȷĿѧ֪ʶռûطԵԤ
ȻйڵԤǰе뵱УѹԤ
⣬˵ԤĴβͣαѧź˿ڵѵӦ
ϴڼʧߡй̨Ԥ¹涨ͬʱڡȻ־
ϡ

ձҪ⣬Ԥ⣬

Asako Saegusa, tokyo, tokyo

ձһŵĽ飬ձĵоӦԤ𣬶
ķתΪչµԤ衣

оƻɴٽоܲHERPܷĿΪձ
δ10ĵоȷ򣬻Թо¿ʼ1999꿪ʼ
ĿӰ졼κԤо

ɹԤܲʵձ𽥳Ϊʶȥ꣬ѧ
˶ĻṩѯĵίԱԳ30ͼԤ
˸ı䣬ԿܷĵĳԤ棨1998
Ȼ393202

HERPļƻһٽ˶ڵԤԤо뷢չ
һǿͨǹ۲ԵĻоȫλϵͳо

1995񻧵ԺHERPΪٽšѧо֮
ЭHERPʶѵҪĿѰҼٴĺķʩ
ͼͨģԵĴ뽨ռʱݵϵʵĿ
ꡣ

ܸüƻǿĳЩԤоԵĵʽṹ
оݵļйٵѧʢеݹ
ɷпƼ׼ȷԤʱǡѡġ

ԤĿƵ˳ԤϣȻԱ֤Ԥʵ
ԡѧĵѧMitsuhiro Matsuura˵оĿĲ
²ʲôʱһҪ䷢Ŀѧ

üƻҲһռоݵģҪĿ
ΪоԱṩϢҲҪԹڿš

ͨϢHERPϣṩоõĻعˣֹԵоΪ
ʽãоõḻ˵ӱܼԵ顣

оԱĿݻ󵼹ڡоݵȻԵо
ԱаԵ¹⣬ѧ޲ءվ˵
˵ĳһضûеܻõؾٵİȫС

̣ر䶯̬ԾҪϸµоMatsuura˵
˹ӦõԵϸĵĽͣԱǶ÷ʲô

ԭģ

Nature 397, 284 (28 January 1999)
Japan to try to understand quakes, not predict them

Asako Saegusa, tokyo, tokyo

Earthquake research in Japan should focus on understanding the 
mechanism of earthquakes, rather than predicting them, according to an 
advisory body to the Japanese prime minister. This shift is needed to 
develop new disaster prevention technologies.

The research plan was released last week by the Headquarters for 
Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP). It is intended to shape Japans 
earthquake research for the next decade, and will influence projects 
at national research institutes from April, when the 1999 fiscal year 
begins.

There is a growing perception in Japan that successful earthquake 
prediction may not be realistic. Last year, the Geodetic Council, 
which advises the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, 
made the first changes in its 30-year-old programme of attempting to 
predict imminent earthquakes, shifting its focus to long-term 
forecasts of areas likely to be struck by major tremors (see Nature 393, 
202; 1998).

HERPs plan goes further by promoting research and development in 
disaster prevention techniques independent of earthquake prediction, 
and by emphasizing basic research on earthquake processes through 
satellite observation, for example with the global positioning systems.

Set up in 1995 after the Kobe earthquake to promote collaboration 
between ministries, universities and research institutes, HERP sees 
the main aim of its plan as exploring ways to minimize the effects of 
major earthquakes. It seeks to do this by analysis and simulation of 
seismic ground motions, and by creating a system to gather real-time 
seismic data.

While the plan emphasizes some earthquake prediction research, such as 
studies of the geophysical and geostructural features of seismogenic 
zones, it calls for a departure from techniques based on data 
collection. It states that accurately predicting the timing of 
earthquakes is exceptionally difficult with current technology.

Although the prediction programme has shifted its focus to making 
long-term forecasts, there is still no guarantee that this is actually 
possible, says Mitsuhiro Matsuura, professor in seismology at Tokyo 
University. The purpose of earthquake research is not to make a 
guess when an earthquake will strike, but to understand the scientific 
mechanism behind it.

The plan also calls for a new data centre to collect and analyse 
information related to domestic earthquake research. While its prime 
objective would be to provide information to researchers, it would 
also be accessible to the public.

By opening up this information, HERP hopes to give a better view of 
present research, and to prevent the exploitation of funds in the name 
of earthquake research, which is often generously funded and is said 
to be more likely to escape critical review.

But many researchers are concerned that disclosing data could mislead 
the public. The disclosure of research data would certainly be 
beneficial to those involved in earthquake research, but it could 
cause misunderstanding among the public, warns Robert Geller, a 
seismologist at Tokyo University. For example, the long-term absence 
of an earthquake in a particular region could give the residents a 
false sense of security.

The physics of earthquake processes, especially their dynamics, still 
requires detailed research, says Matsuura. Therefore the public must 
be given a careful explanation of seismological phenomena so people 
understand what happens.

(XYS20080526)

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ţԤӣйѧ

Ѱ

ǡȻ־1999128յű

йѹƲ׼ȷԤ

Asako Saegusa, TOKYO, tokyo

й͸¶˽ʹøϸķԵԤļƻԷֹ
ԤĿֻģɢ

йݻ׼˶ԵϢ¹涨ҪеĵԤҪ
߱׼Ŀѧκβɢ׼ȷ𾯸߶ܵ

ͳƣڹȥУг30ǣٷʽĵԤû
һ׼ȷġԤԵÿγ˳ɢϵ
ҵȻֹͣڻңҲԹ񾭼ò𺦡

ԤйĻڼΪߣԤǷ׼ȷĿ
ĻɣһΪëʽ˶ս

Ϊԭģ

Nature 397, 284 (28 January 1999)
China clamps down on inaccurate warnings

Asako Saegusa, TOKYO, tokyo

China has revealed plans to introduce tough regulations intended to 
stamp out false earthquake warnings, in order to prevent panic and 
mass evacuations of cities triggered by forecasts of major tremors.

The new regulations on earthquake information, approved last week by 
the Chinese prime minister Zhu Rong-ji, will require a high standard 
of scientific reasoning behind all earthquake predictions. Anyone 
who releases an inaccurate earthquake warning may be penalized.

According to the government, more than 30 unofficial earthquake 
warnings have been made in the past three years, none of which has 
been accurate. Such warnings, which could cause evacuation of more 
than 10,000 residents at a time, have repeatedly brought production 
lines and business operations to a standstill, leading not only to 
public disorder but also to considerable damage to the countrys 
economy.

Earthquake prediction was introduced as a national priority in China 
during the Cultural Revolution, and warnings against the feasibility 
of such predictions  whether accurate or not  were once seen as a 
challenge to Maos revolutionary movement.

(XYS20080526)

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ֶ쳣 ֳƷǵǰ

̨524ձĴ봨󣬸ʡ½ڷӳһЩ쳣
ʡ쵼ʮһ⣬ڵһʱɳרҺ
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һþˮͻȻ

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۸ʡڵԡǰ׹۲δַƻԵĶ쳣


ۺϷΪʡڷƻԵĿԲ 

(XYS20080526)

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ڽֱִ߳ ֵ绰

Ϸ524ձ ֵ·ճִܣ
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ݵֽܣĿǰѾң̨ǿ̨Լʱ
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(XYS20080526)

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