                          ˿µϣ20090418գ

09.04.17ûи
09.04.18, ˡڿ۽硰ס⡷
09.04.18, ꡶йѧУǰѧ١
09.04.18, ФǡߵĿΪ
09.04.18, SCIǵйƼɹ۵Ҫָ꡷
09.04.18, Flybirdۡ
09.04.18, ԶҽЧۺϿǵͼȤζϷ
09.04.18, Eddieŵʧ֮۵Ļա
09.04.18, MSCIϺͨѧҽѧԺһƪٵSCIġ
09.04.18, ֻ̤ƸڲͬطظиС
09.04.18, lovenankaiϿѧξʿѧϮӳ
09.04.18, ʿҽʦѧλĳϮ֤ɽ
09.04.18, ArchangelκƽҽѧԺ격¼ҽѧԺĻùҿƼȽ𣿡
09.04.18, κƽҽѧԺ격¼ҽѧԺڸ߼١
09.04.18, ̫롶ڵһЩ
09.04.18, kevinyang1966ƾġˮоͦ
09.04.18, ƵCCTV2չ۲죺ƾı
09.04.18, ˿xys.xlogit.comѹر

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ڿ۽硰ס

ߣ

⼸쿴˼۵ĸڼܣƺΪסƪ
𡣡סƪµȷ˿۽⼸Ҳø߻
ʤԪġϰרҡСʵġϰרҡѧ
Ͻרһͨ򵥵Ĵ족»ȡ档ʵƽ
ϰרҡΣΪʶǻ˸棬࣬
ڵȡ˵ǳϮеǣǿ˵ظ²ΪǾǰѿ
۵ķתһ˲ϷһΡƵĶ֪
ۼǿ۵ĶԳƣϵõķͽ۶ֲ
ϡѧʱһƪϤӦûģ˽ڻ
ȦںܱƲ𣬵йȴԳΪʲôЩ
úܸأΪ⣬дѧ͸
ĽڻڴƵ¡ȥ˭ǵ£ҿ
Ը90%й˻򺫹ˡ

׳£ҵȻһѷĸϣοôѹ
ʵҶ֪ЩûʲôһЩظľƵ
Ĺͬϰô󰢶شѧĳͨĽڻֶܵƽ£
Ǻڷܡ˵ͨĽڣ۵Ķ֪ͨĽ
10ǰܿĿǣЩ½ڹ˴
ƽ֡ϰרңҲµ͹ϵںõĿ־Ϸ˴
ġ¡µȴӣкܶ˵ôʼ
¡ܿȴϸҪûж¼Ȼ࣬
Ӯ˸𾴡

ȷڿƽмףȽҲͿѧԺĹԺʿԭ
ֱĹסӡסƪʵĻӦ
֮һԺߵĿΪ󡣵˴ˡס뱱Ĺ
أԷ10ӦòûɡС¡(&
)󱨽һͶĽ˱Ĺ׾ǶϴѧĹף
ƺҲӦûɶϵĹס

ͳð⣨ðĻ뷽һ£Ӧ
˵ðǺܲõģҲǺܲµģҲױԷһ
仵¡ǵüǰ˽ҷҽպҶ¼ʱ㽭ѧƸڡ족
£http://www.xys.org/dajia/chujian.html廪ĳ֪á١
г)Ÿֿƽˣ鵽IPַ
廪ȥʦǿϵܴԺʿ˵ʱ廪ίǺ
Ӣ汣ݵĻ»治˽ᡣѧԺϵͳº׿ʼ
ֽ֧ҷԳϮٵģº𥻹Ժܶ˵:"ҽҵܺãר
ŸҵҪҵѧܡǴ⣩ºҵ
Ƽصʵʱڻʵҽ²̨

ΪԺʿӰҷĳЩ˿ʼҲһֱ˵ǿѧԺҷ
ģҲٶĳϮ˵ʲôˣڵʱҲų⡣
Ժʿºȥ󹤿һˣΪһѧ棬ʵȥ
ָϵġ⣬廪ܴԺʿֵĹٷҲΪ²òƽ
һ¸һҽĽۡҽȵķǳɹ

˵Щ˼ðӰǳãǵĴҵΣ
Ƿǳġⲻҽȶʼظ·չ˾ˣ
ȥѧ⣺ߣһ֮ Ȼ
֪Ժʿ󣬹ĹLMIҲû
ҪðӰ䡣ҪôʵҪô뷽ҲΪ㡣

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

йѧУǰѧ

ߣ

2007꣬һҦСйѧѧ빤ѧԺʦ
˹ȻѧĿͺ׿ﱬصĹ
ѧͺڰѧо39Ԫ2008-012010-12ҦСΪĳ
ѧУʦͲǺĽʦйѧѧ빤ѧԺ
Ժ߻ͬ߻ǺѧУǵʦܡΪд˹ϵ
ΪУһٰҦѧΪΪĨڡ

2008꣬˽ҦСԼ¾ٱȻѧί
ί˵йѧѯ¡Ǻ͸߻ĵ֤ҦС
һֱ˲šɼҲҦСԼȻѧ
ʵǵĹعίԱһֻ۱һֻ۵Ļؾ
¡

2008ףί쵼֪£йѧٴαֳ˵Ĺ
մµĴΪ˻ջؿоѡȻ
ѧǺܶѧеľȻʵȴôйѧ
иɾĵط

һУ֮߻ΪһԺ֮Ϊ˸˵һ棬ѧ
£øֶ½ѧ٣֪ʷѵͲӦܵӦ
ǴͳͽͬʱĿǰȴŹ973ҿƼشרȿ
⣬òȻıΪĳЩѧƴͷˣġԾйĿƼ
ϣòȻѧƵķչʣйѧΪص㽨
985211ԺУѵΪ쵼˸еڶѧ
Ļ滹ʲôչϣ۳Ϊ֮ܶһĺѧ
ЩӻЩϽʦ۰

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ߵĿΪ

ߣФ

: !

ðĸʼ.ӳߵĿΪ.
йϸڳ,˿רǿܷ񡰶֢ҩ,һ
.

Ф,ڽʡԴƷ޹˾(ù˾Ϊ
Դҵɷ޹˾).Ϊ׼̼ٷۺз,ù˾
ϴѧѧԺ׵Ϊ׵ĿŪٵĲΪ,Ϊ
ְ뿪Դ˾.Ϊ˷˽䲻Ϊϸ,ڴ˽صʵ
ʱ˳,ǲοʵ.

2004,׵ڿԴ˾ǩЭ,Դ˾
׼ٷ׼̼ٷ.ֱ2004,зδȡýչ,
ڵҵϸ׼̼ٷ۵ķ.

,Դ˾ϰԺУҲ.,2005Դ˾
人̴ѧ(ԭ人ѧԺ)ҲǩЭ(УĿ2003ָ
Դ˾ɹз׼ٷ),׼̼ٷ.ڸУ
ָ,20055Դ˾׼̼ٷ۵Ĺҵ,ɹ.
Ʒܻʱ³ѧϿ,ʱרһԴ˾ṩ׼
̼ٷƷŷ׼̼ٷ۽˶Ա,ڷֱսϸӲ
ʺϽĽ,ܷ涼.

˲,200625Դ˾ϰڴ,
ͨϴѧĺ,̼ٷ۵зҲѽⲢγȶBET
150~200׵̼ٷ۹ϵ,ĿǰƼ.ͬʱҲ
,ŹĽ.ʹְ.֮,ϴѧ
ѧԺĿص׼̼ٷ۵Ĺҵ鶼δԴ˾?!
νз׼̼ٷ۾ͱͽʡƼƼɹ
.2006714ͨɽʡƼ֯,ϴѧѧԺĿ
Դ˾з׼̼ٷ۵ĿƼɹ.ʵ,
һƻľνɹ. Ϊ,ֻôְ뿪Դ˾,Ϊ
ΪĻӦ.

ְ֮,07ҿƼгŽ칫ʵٱһ
Ϊ.082·ݽʡƼĲܴҵ绰֪,Դ˾˵
ϴѧѧԺйؿָ,20069,Ҳ̼ٷ۳
֮,󲹡һ׼̼ٷ۵Ĺҵ.ҵڻ
оһ˵,ָ޷Ĺ֮:һ,зɹ,
Ŀ(200625),صĹҵ龹ں(20069)?!
,зĿƼɹͨ(2006714),صĹҵ
Ժ(20069)?!ϵȫߵ,޷Բ˵!

ܴûлӦҵ,ֻҲĳŰ.Ƽ
Űȥʼ㱨˴,ַʼ.,ֱҲδ
κλظ.

ϸ(093),ҷʼϴѧ,ʵٱ˸У׵ڵĿ
Ϊ.ٱʼط˼,Ҳκλظ.

йϸ,Ҷ֤ӡ֤,Ҫṩ.

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

SCIǵйƼɹ۵Ҫָ

ߣ

˱ƷSCIġҷҹĿǰSCIĵĿ
ӰӵΪҪۿеķɵ
滹ûۡҪ˴٣ǴӸ컯
˿еĿġ вͬ

SCIĲȫһɹĺûĿǰȻõ
۸оɹð취Ŀǰ൥λҲǽSCIӰ
Ϊ۷绹йںڿר񽱵ȣرǻĿǰռܴ
ɷֻ֪֡ҪǹģȱŶȡҲμӹĿ
ѡҼĿƼ󣬹ҽѧʦҾƷγ̵ȣ
ӵҪյк˵Ϣƺǹģ޷ųš
ЩĿҪ̫š

Ҳι10SCIڿ󣬴ûܵ˵ĸţɼ
Peer-reviewƶƵġSCIǺġӦƪ
ӰӣӦÿǹͬеõۡԹ̼
ӦʵʾЧ棬Ŀǰɵλ߲ʵЧ֤
ͨͨˣӶÿƼҲSCIרУ
ѧ̬£

˱ȻΪSCIǺģҿǹͬе
õָꡣ

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

Flybird

ߣ

Ϊ˼Ҫֱ

1 ҵǰġƷSCIġƷҪ۵Ƕ
SCIΪĿĽоԶоĿĵ컯Ҫ
ϧFlybirdHenryûaddressһ㡣

2 ƼԱ߿ͬǰȫûбҪйƵ
ҲȥйĽʵ̫ࣩߣѧǱġ
ǰǾֲģȫԵġǰߵĹƽҪǶȫֹƽӰ죬
ĹƽȫֹƽƷһ˵һ֤ҵԽԱĹ
ƽǳӮ֮۳УءǵҵڵĹƽ¶Ծ
кĽƷʱȫܵ˲ĴΪоߵ
Ϊ˿ѧġԾСͶ޶ȵزĴĶڿ
ѧȻ

3ѧͼԶ˵ܹ˵ġ
debateķǶӢĿƼڿʱʵʲȡķҲ
NIHĿ֮Чķкüƪµķͼ
ʵֵģ NIHGrantҲAddressίίĴ󲿷
µõġ鳣ڷûȻʧЦ

4ڡоҪģ׷󷢱ģչʾԼ
ͬʱҲΪͬṩοƶƼʲôԣע⣬׷󷢱
£ǻʲôоȻ漰ܵĹ
⣩񲻳֣оҲգ˷
˰˵ǮFlybirdҵĸڿеĿġΪеĿ
Ϊ˽ѧ⣬ͨѧĽļĽ
ᣬʵһĿͬʱģͬнFlybirdΪ
еĿľ׷󷢱ģЩǷΪ衣ܹƶƼ
ͬʱĸҵΪΪ˷Ķо֣
Ϊ˿콱Ļ

5ҸмDarwinistsҵ۵ԼĺӦҲͬ
и߼ƷǣԷΪĿĵĿг˱Ȼ
Ͷ룭ĵĿָ˼ӶʹƼݿúʹĶӳ
⣬һĿѧĵɵĸӰ컹
FlybirdҲһӡ:-) 

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ҽЧۺϿǵͼȤζϷ

ߣԶ

416ա͵ҽЧñϡһУָ
ҽԭ޹ص֢״ƣЧ˱׼(Чԭ
õ) ƷʸơΪһ̸͵Դ˻ѳҽ
Ч

, Ʒʡ ơ͡ڡ ָһ
,ȻͰҽڡ͡ӳڡЧ
׾ٵ̯ϰǰڳҽԻƷʵĸ
޹أֻһϵж֢ƵĽѡôߵʹΪ
ͣʵҲͳˣΪ˿ɶǳšҽ
ơָ漣ġ

ʵʲ,ҽԵشһơҽ
ЧۺϿȫ繫ϵҽЧ˵ĸָУһ 
Ʒʡ ,ƴճһú,лˮ֮ʵڡ
ҽѧۺЧеá(й2001 10 02)͡
ЧеӦá(ٴο־2008 13 01)
ƪгֵλ˵ǰҽĵ۵㣺

ִҽѧƶЧ۱׼ǿĽ죬Գ
ı׶ˣҽҩЧƬ档ˣ۷
ҽѧУڽҽҩЧ޷͹⡣

Ȼ͵ʮơҽûҪƷΪָ
ЧˣϣȫλۺϿҽָ꣬ڴ˻
Ʒָꡣҽȣҽָֻ಻١ִѧı
ǩʽʽƳ˵ţţ? Ⱦӣ

һ: ҽҩƶٴЧ۱׼̽֡
(ҽѧ2005 3 04)
Ҫȫ͹۵ҽҩЧ,ƶһҽ
ɫ,ӦִҽѧٴЧ۵Ҫ󼰷չƵ
׼Ϊ,Ч(ʱ)ʮ֤򻺽ʮ
.

Ӷ: ҽЧ׼۷̽֡
(ʮȫҽѧᡷ2006)
ʮ,ҽѧģʽ¹ת,Ч׼Ҳڷı,
ٵЧΪ׼,ȶʻ޽չΪ׼,.
ЧӦʹյָ,мָꡣҽЧ=ߵ
+++СƷ,簴100ּɳ
Ϊ100=30+30+30+10,ǰΪ,ΪΡ

Ӿٲʤ,ȻͬʽľĿƺ͸ϸ
΢,ԭͬ,Ч=++ʡ 

ʵӱ˵,ҽԭ޹ص֢״ƣʹ
һͼȤζϷʾһҿ,ֻҪѧﵽ
Сѧˮƽ,,Ӽ˳,һͻ:

ٴ鵹äģʹûκҩЧİο
ҽʹҩȻҩԭûκЧ,ڡ⡱
ڡָͬ,ƾҩһЩЧ(θ
ȵ),ڡƷʡһڰο顣ôݹʽЧ=
++ʡͿԵóҽۺЧڰο
Ľֽۣȫ߱ͳѧġ

ʵҴְϷķǳ򵥣ǾһҽϢ,
趨ƷʿĿ(Ʃ˵ʳʹ˯ȵ)ʹû
õЧҩƩ˵ҩ+ֹʹҩ+ҩȵȡ,鲡
Ƿ˶ԭƵ,ڶ˵ڳ档Ŀǰͨ
ҩҩҩЧԱҩǺƥе,رʹ

ôһٴͻĽ
(1) ġʡ͡ڡûв(ʡ ͡
ӳΪ) 
(2) ġƷʸơ
(3) ҽġƷʸơָҽϢ顣

ۣҽЧۺϿȹϢ!
Ҳ˵ѾơҽϢ,䡰Ч
ҽ,ǲϲɫʺŨ? 

ԣҽ벻˼ƭ,Ǿͱʵʵ,ձ˵
,ЧۺϿʽһСС޸ģڡơ֮ǰ
һ,:

Ч(Чԭõġʱ)
ʮ֤򻺽ʮ

Ч=Чԭõġ++?
Ʒ

Ҳ˵,ʡ͡ڡָ,о,
ƷʡǴμָ,ڴλҽЧˣȶ
ָ,ȷԭǷЧ,Ƿʸҩﷶ롣
Ƿ񶨵ģǾͲҪóƷʡָȥˡֻзϳ
ָҪ,ԭЧſԶԡƷʡˡ

ǣһҽȷʵԭЧԶҿ϶
ʱҽæȫϢFDA걨ϵҽҩ˾
ﻹԡȤһȥˡ

,ҿĸҽ桰ЧۺϿ,Ϳ
ǰȥ,Ƿʡ͡ڡĿˡûеĻ,ôƾ
ʾ,Ϳֱ׳ظҽ:ͼȤζ
Ϸ,Ծһʮƭӡ

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ŵʧ֮۵Ļ

ߣEddie

ѧһգJohn Wheelerһļգ
־һڷ˼ƪ¡ղǷǳѧң֪
ܳԭһųǡڶֵķˣʵ
ǣһνһڼϿɵģһ
֪ķĵʦ

õʿѧλʱʮꡣ1933¡ʱе
ѧһñԶŷޣʦڸ籾Ĳ¡
˺üĹáֻ˼ѹûзֻ
һƪĽҹջعʼ˶۵Ľѧġ
սҲ֮

19391£˴Զʣڸ籾ͷϣϣ
УĶĵ˵˼仰Ժ󣬲ŦԼͷϼǰ
ӭӵķ׺ͻգֱַͬǶ˼䣬ʵԭӺѱϢ
Ʈˡһƪ˵ʱδ͸¶ţ
һѧԴյġڽļͻսһ
ĺ춨ԭӺѱҺģͣΪԭӵڵ
ۻ

ҲڼΪ˹ٵѧġյʱӣ
ΪͻȻӲʱﵹܵĵӶѣҹܵ
٩󣬷ͼüͷ
綯ѧвɻȱķͼıҵҲǻյʱһ뷨
еĶӣѳЧӦɡԶáaction at a 
distanceʹ˹Ī˹ԭӵڼ䣬ʦͽȻæ͵
ķչһĶûʲô󣬷ڿ
ԭΪоĶ磬չһ׽·ֵ
һ±

ս󣬻ܵŷѧ԰Ϊزʱܸ籾ݻᲨ
ÿÿɹͰ͵׸ģȴһرѹ¡1949 
죬˶ԭӺ˷ǶԳ״ĽͣͲ󳤴һδ
ڼ䣬յһԤӡڸױǴѧͬˮѾ
ͬۡ1975꣬ˮһŵ
Ҳ

ʿȵĻԹ޻ڣûбԹһ䣬ҲδҰ
ʲô˸УֻżԼѧҪķ
ӦҪȴĳɹҲû̫ʱ˼ԭ
ӵըˣϻͶ뵽ֵ̩ⵯо

ھʮʱȥģıϻоʮʱдµ
оʼǡѧȣͻЩȺǲõѧǡ
һͳƣ˹ʩڼ䣬оѧλ
ѧлǸĵĿ϶ԶԶκνڡ
˵ѧ֮ѧڣΪ˽ܵ

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ϺͨѧҽѧԺһƪٵSCI

ߣMSCI

ǷϺҽѧԺҽԺĳλҽTransplantation 
Proceedings 2008403615-3618ҳϷģĿLiposome-Mediated 
Transfer Can Improve the Efficacy of Islet Labeling With 
Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide⣬١

ĵԭʼļ468.pdfڱʼĸУҲԴ־վ
ء

ǶԴĲֽбע˽ͼ468.jpgһڸУ
⡣

ǵҪоLiposomeSPIO (ſӰ) ȵϸ
ЧʵӰ졣

гƣLiposomeŨΪ20ug/ml, 40ug/ml, 100ug/ml, 
120ug/ml, 140ug/ml, 200ug/mlSPIOϣЩŨSPIO
Ч(P<0.05)

λԭǣ

At each concentration, cells that were incubated with SPIO in the 
presence of liposomes absorbed more iron than those incubated in SPIO 
alone (P<0.05).

ǽžƣLiposomeŨΪ120ug/mlSPIOϣ(
ǰһ仰Ľ)߱Ǻϸ11.68+/-3.42ߵ
13.88+/-2.48

λԭ (Ѿڽͼúʱ)

For example, when islets were incubated with SPIO at an iron 
concentration of 120ug/ml, the mean cellular iron content (pg iron per 
cell) was 13.88+/-2.48 in the presence of liposomes versus 
11.68+/-3.42 for SPIO alone.

ᵽⶨÿΪ5

˻ԭ (Ѿڽͼúʱ)

The assay was repeated 5 times for each iron concentration.

Ϊ˼ʵԣǸƼGraphpad Prism.

ַǣhttp://www.graphpad.com/demos/

ǽJiaoȵֵ֣SDֱΪ13.88+/-2.48
11.68+/-3.42飬Ϊ5£tPֵΪ0.2778û
ͳѧ (μͼеĺ)

һļʾֱÿӵ15tPֵȻ0.05 
ûͳѧ (μͼеĺ)

г֤Ϊƪĵͳ٣ɻء

(XYS20090418)

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ֻ̤Ƹڲͬطظи

ߣ

09.3.30ףǱĹף˿վֻ̤Ƹ
ڲͬطظ֤ȷؽҷͬʱ
ϾʦѧƸڡпƼѧƸڼѧݱ
⣬ƸһѧУѧߵְλԶԶ߳һʦĴ
ͬʱѧУȫְƸѧʹġ 

ñ֥ȹȫְڹƸ
ѧȫְƸһ£Ƶ˿վҷֻһΡ񣬹
ڻʵ߲˲šǧ˼ƻ
http://www.gmw.cn/CONTENT/2009-03/21/content_900386.htmƻҪ
ӦƸѧÿڹƸλȫְ6ϣƸԱǳԽ
˵ȥѾһֺڻְλ֪
֤ÿڹȫְ6µĳŵǷҲɱĽ㡣 

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ϿѧξʿѧϮӳ

ߣlovenankai

𾴵ķã 

оķɹʱϿѧʾо2003
ҵĲʿξ뾭÷չйó棩
Ϯ¡йƺӦʲĲԡɽ
ѧʲΪơɳ磬2000棩ġ
塢´󲿷ͬƣͬݹԼ19000֡ξġ
뾭÷չһ䲩ʿĵĻϷɣ˻䲩ʿ
ҲصĳϮΪϿѧйزŷӳһ
ֱδлӳϣӦҪصĶԱ
ϣǿԸʼĹȥл

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ʦѧλĳϮ֤ɽ

ߣʿҽ

ѧ֮裬Ůӽģֶʦѧ2008
˶ʿѧλġδƽŮӽָʦ𩣩кü
ڵسϮϴѧ2003˶ʿѧλġδŮӽָ
ʦꡢ֣δκ˵ֶαӣߡ

ǰ滹һΡƣʽѧλ
Ǳڵʦָ½еоȡõоɹ֪
رԱעлĵط⣬вѾ׫до
ҲΪöʦѧѧλ֤ʹùĲϡ
һͬͬ־Աоκι׾ȷ˵
ʾл⡣

ɴ˿ɼ˶ʿͲʿеġĳЩѧ𲻵Լ
ãΪָʦѧλ赥λڼܵĵơ

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

κƽҽѧԺ격¼ҽѧԺĻùҿƼȽ𣿡

ߣArchangel

κԳϵͳˣ̸ҽѧԺ͸ҽԺĹϵ
ֻΪ֪֮١װԻ

ҽѧԺҽԺ1960ΪҽѧԺĸҽԺһֱ졣
꣬ҽѧԺ͸ҽԺʱ⸾ٴٴҵҪ
˼ȫǴϾҽѧԺҽѧԺĽںרҡЩ
ҽѧԺҽԺҵߡٴʵʾٴҡ
ѧϽҽԺҽѧԺٴѧԺֱ죬ҽѧԺҽԺ
ҽѧԺٴѧԺԺ͸ŵĸ˶ͬģһ

ӹϽѧԺҽѧԺҽԺֱϼλҽ
ѧԺҽԺԺǺ͸ŵҪ˶ҽѧԺֱӷġ
ϽʡҽԺҵϽʡҵϽĿǰ
ҽԺԺͬʱҽѧԺĸԺڿѧѧƴͷˡ
ùҼïڡƽڶҽѧԺӰѧԺĽڣڻ
ڵӰѧԺԺΡ

ףٸӣҽѧԺ͸ҽԺеĸ˾ӹ˾Ĺϵ
ҽԺĵίҽѧԺĶίԱͻǽġغϵģ
ѧҽƵҪţߵԱʹ϶ҽѧԺͳһġ

ҽѧԺҽԺҽѧԺϵ50ˣʲôʱ
ƽλˣǿЦˣΪҽѧԺҽԺĹҼǸ
ԺģҲҽѧԺġͺѧԺĽѵѧ˶
ҽѧԺӰѧԺԺͽڣʲô

˵⻰κƽӦøĸֽαƽáͲҪٶ
ˡ   

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ҽѧԺ격¼ҽѧԺڸ߼

ߣκƽ

ҽѧԺ격г˱λ20041200812¾д
ԵĿѧоɹ50ǰͬһ˵ģ
	
1.ï:ϵͳ-ѹԼVOHۺԽƵӦ
2008ȹҿƼȽ

2. ï⣺1011ͬͲۺƵٴӦо
2006йžܺڲһȽ

3. ï⣺խԲۺԽƵӦо
2004лҽѧƼȽ
	
ҽѧԺпгɹǰУɼҽѧԺ
Ǻεȵӡָ⡣
	
ïҽѧԺҽѧӰѧԺԺ˵ҽѧԺ
һĵĻĩïҽѧԺһġһҿ
ȽΪҽѧԺ격һص롣е˵ҽ
ѧԺǿƣռֵġ

ïȷʵǻ˹ҿƼȽǲ֪Ϊʲôï
ΪҽѧԺְ걨һĹУΪʲôԼλ
ҽѧԺ֣ȥһĵλҽѧԺҽԺ֣
ï֮Դǲ׼ۡڡҽѧԺ
ҽѧԺҽԺͬĶλ⣬һƪ
ȷ˵

ʡѧλ격˵ȷ涨д격ʱ
дġרĿӦߣˣλĿг
λԱλõĳɹ롣ԣܡҿƼ
Ƚǳˣǰսʡѧλȷ涨ҽѧԺܰ
һдԼ격顣

ҽѧԺ격дïĵڶĿǣ1011
ͬͲۺƵٴӦо2006й
žܺڲһȽ

͵һйžܺڲһȽӦ൱ʡ
ƼһȽĽһ飬ˡҳ
http://www.hbgrb.net/Html/shxw/011943227.htm

Ƿб

ƽҽԺȫҽƳɹ׶    ͨѶԱϲϲӭ
57֮ʣܺڲϲѶйžҽƳɹһ
Ƚ6УʺƽҽԺרҴ޽չġ1011ͬͲ
ۺƵٴӦоڶרϸͨһΪ
ժȡˡʮһ塱֮ȫҽƳɹ׶ڡԴӱ
˱	

αˣïڣڶõĲǡй
žܺڲ൱ڽʡĿгɹһȽǡй
žܺڲ൱ڽʡġҽƳɹһȽ൱
ڽġѧɹ	

ïдһʱһУйžܺ
ġҽƳɹһȽйؼ߸֡ҽƳɹɾ
ˡɾ߸֣ļʾȫˡȻǹ
Ϊ

격ĿгɹָƼȻѧ
ѧɹҽƳɹȣǿгɹһд
격顣

ҽѧԺ격ддïĵĿ
ï2004лҽѧƼȽһ2004õģ
ʵҽѧԺǿд격ģ涨д
λ20041200812¾дԵĿѧоɹ

лϯҽѧҳ

http://www.puson.com/instruct/200501/135_86300.aspx
ˡ2004лҽѧƼȫĿ¼һĿ
¼ûзïڵ֣Ҳûз֡ҽѧԺ֡˵
ҽѧԺ격У鱨ïڡ2004лҽѧƼ
Ƚһ

δ
Ԥ棺ǽڽʮƪϵ,ϵͳ۽ʡ격
ֵһ¼дз˸ҽѧԺٵĲ
ϣ۵ƪҪࡣѾ쵽ĳ̶ȣҪ
ǵ격ĺҵʵݣһѵ顣

(XYS20090418)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ڵһЩ

ߣ̫

5.12һˣAmselռĲϣид

ȥʱúһЩܣ˲ٵϣռЩ

ЩǵʱһЩϳʱṩϡ

1ʲôǵԤ

Ԥ(Ԥ)ָĳҪຬġԤ⡱
Ԥ˵ͬʱָĵص㡢ʱʹС(ΪҪ
ء) ȷ綨ġԤ⡱Ԥûʲô塣
⣬ѧһ÷ʾԤĿų̶ȡԣѧҰѵԤ
ΪͬʱδλáСʱ͸ֲÿֲ
(ȷķΧ)Сڡֵ(Wyss1991)

λãѳȣ
С05ѳȻ𼶡05
ʱ䣺20 𸴷ʱ䣻
ʣԤȷ(Ԥȷ+Ԥʧ)
ϣ̩Ժʿ

2ܷԤ⡣

ʵһǿԣһǲԡ޷Ԥ˵
ھУм൱ţXרҾͳֹ۵㣨 Geller
Earthquakes cannot be predictedScience, 1997Ҳкܶݡ
ǾѶȺܴһ̶ϻǿԵġۺܶࡣ

Ŀǰ۵Ϊforecastingsomething would happen ǿܵ,
predictionsomething will happen ǳѡйѧԺ
ڣйֵо

3׼ȷ

൱רҲΪ𲻿Ԥ֪Ϊڣ£-
ܣԤ˼׼ȷʺܵ͡

2000й̨ģǰԤģյ700ֵ
Ԥл׼ȷԤ7ݡ2008յ26ݶ
ԤûȷԤĶԤεǰйû
ԤͬʱҲûյκελ˻ύйε
Ԥйֳָʱ5.12˵ģ

гڣ1-10꣬10ϣԤ׼ȷʸһЩ
Ϊ׼ȷ30%ҡ

ɹȣƪᵽķ׼ȷʲǧ֮˿ѣ

Ԥﵽ10%׼ȷѾ㲻ˡҹÿԤĵ󲿷ֶ
鱨,ÿʡĵֶҪڿ̻,ڻ̻ۿҪĵ
,רóϱһйֵооԱ

ԤٸӡĿǰй2-3ڵԤ׼ȷ70-80%⻹
֮Ԥ׼ȷѸ½׼ȷֻ19% 
22%ôǣôڴλʷô¼
ҲˮƽԤԭԤƣͼ¼ð죬ؼ
ڲѽ룬ڵռݱʹںܴ⡣ϣ
Ե˽̫̫ˣĴڶ㲻ء

Ԥ(汨˻ϵ?)ʱĿ𼶡
СǺҪġɺܼ򵥣ΪСҪȴö(һ˵ĳ
һĳһʱڣĳһ𼶵Ŀ𼶱1Ŀ810
)ɱ!ڸĵ͸ʱҪһ
Mw 60ĵ𲢷£ӦϡһMw 50ĵġԤ⡱
Ǻпܵġ(̩)

ڲʱзΨ󷽷ûа취İ취Щ
ͨʷݵĻع飬ǵĳڹƱгϵļ
ͨ˷ˣзҲǺ鷳еڹƱĲ
ۣ֪۶׻ֲ˺鷳ĳĳǰĳ
ʲôʱѸ

4ǰ

ġ

4.1ʲôǰ

 1989꿪ʼʵѧڲѧЭ(IAsPEI)ĵԤ
ίԱᣬ֯13רҲμӵĹС飬ԸרԼ
ĵǰ׽ϸ(Wyss19911997Wyss and Booth1997)
רСѵǰȷضΪ֮ǰġΪ
йһֻġġɲı仯һ(19891990)
ԸרΪ28ǰ󣬵ڶ(1991
1996)10ֹ37(ڶһڵһ)ר
СĽֻ5ͨ϶5ɷΪ3ࡣһǵ
ͼ񣬰

ǰСʱµǰ(foreshocks)197524й
Ms 73ǰ(⿪ͳȣ1976)

ǰġԤ(preshocks)1988122M 67Ĵ
Tennant Creek(Bowman1997)

 ǿ֮ǰĵƽ(Matsu ura1986)
ڶǵˮԣֻһ

1978114ձһ󵺽M 70ǰˮ١
ˮ½(Wakita et al19881991)

ǵؿα䣬Ҳֻһ

ݵؿα䣬198584Kettlemanɽǰˮ
ӳĵؿα(Roeloffs and Quilty1997)

ڵӦ䡢бؿ˶δβQֵs
ѡϫӦȺȻλصʺ͵شųŷ䡢Ӧ
ˮӦ̱߳仯洹ֱ˶ϲ䶯ؿα(ƽ仯һ
)ɺһδ϶δͨ˵Щǰ
һôֻרҺרС÷Ŀǰδ
졢вȫȷǰǷǰסʹȷΪĵ
ǰס5ζżԤ𡣣̩

4.2ǰ

ǰǵǰףʶǰȻһ⡣
̩


PDE 2007 01 10 171858.36 33.26 104.74 23 4.70 mb GS .D . ....... 
280
PDE 2007 03 11 064211.76 32.25 104.66 35 4.30 mb GS .. . ....... 
182
PDE 2007 04 22 154909.47 28.26 104.81 35 .. . ....... 332
PDE 2007 04 23 165953.78 28.20 104.87 35 3.80 mb GS .. . ....... 
340
PDE 2007 04 26 222028.23 33.15 104.38 35 3.80 mb GS .. . ....... 
255
PDE 2007 06 18 042400.74 34.01 100.92 35 4.50 mb GS .. . ....... 
406
PDE 2007 07 13 125238.15 29.63 98.92 47 4.20 mb GS .. . ....... 
456
PDE 2007 07 28 031930.02 26.72 102.05 35 4.10 mb GS .. . ....... 
491
PDE 2007 07 30 233523.66 29.18 102.71 35 4.10 mb GS .. . ....... 
212
PDE 2007 08 14 024730.66 28.42 105.33 10 .. . ....... 341
PDE-W 2007 10 05 190139.84 28.46 105.14 10 3.90 mb GS .. . ....... 
327
PDE-W 2007 12 18 001659.14 27.34 103.92 35 3.90 mb GS .. . ....... 
408
PDE-W 2008 01 05 134505.66 33.89 102.12 35 3.90 mb GS .. . ....... 
341
PDE-W 2008 01 31 210650.85 28.35 104.99 48 4.80 mb GS .. . ....... 
331
PDE-W 2008 02 13 224954.60 28.40 105.01 35 3.80 mb GS .. . ....... 
326
PDE-W 2008 02 16 060015.31 29.54 102.03 43 3.90 mb GS .. . ....... 
207
PDE-W 2008 02 26 175003.58 30.08 101.77 24 4.90 mb GS .F . ....... 
186
PDE-W 2008 02 28 151929.32 31.30 104.14 10 4.50 mb GS .. . ....... 
77
PDE-W 2008 04 03 182526.40 28.41 102.54 10 4.20 mb GS .. . ....... 
298
PDE-Q 2008 04 09 225521.75 27.21 102.79 89 4.10 mb GS .. . ....... 
423
PDE-Q 2008 05 02 155628.73 27.54 101.93 35 4.70 mb GS .. . ....... 
408

0708512ǰ봨Ϊģ뾶500֮ڵ3.0ϵ
𣨷ǳȫͳƣǷĸǰ

Ĵ3.0ϵÿ100Ρ

Ŀǰ˵˵ǣÿε𶼿Ϊǰ
Kgcan

4.3󡣬Ʋ

˵ˡ

5

ڸԤҪ·ӡ

һϽĿѧоߵ·ӡоĳõۣ
ģͣͨѧɼݣȻдʵʷжԱȣ
ϸĽۣĽо˼·оĳЩѧʿľͷԴ
˵ǡٿơ

һǾ鷽Ψѧ·ӡͨоȻһЩ쳣
ĹϵԤ⡣쳣ҪţΪЩԿѧ
˵ҲǺġЩ󡢶ȵȣ⼸쿴
úܶˡ

ɣЩʱзģиʲô֮ģԲУ
ʱᡣ

ǿѧȽĵطǿѧĶСرǶȱѧ
ʶרҵ֪ʶˣΨѧоһЩ˵ܽԻ⼸죬ܣ
ʧֵ÷ǳ־Ǹӡ

Ψѧ·òЩΪĳЩ쳣пǵṹ
仯µ仯Ӷģʵ϶ϸáϲ
˵˵ʱǾͻ˵ĳĳδ֮ǰʲôʲô
иеǲõЩȱ
˵Ҳǲģȱ֪ʶʱ򣬺һЩ˽ϵ
ڴѧиʲô˵òˡЩ󲻵йУҲڡ

VANϣŵѧ3λһְ취׼ȷʺܸߡ


In summary. VAN's claims to be making "SUCCESSFUL predictions" of 
earthquakes ARE NOT VALIDGeller
There are no unqualified successes! (Kgcan)

VANĹ۱,ⳡĿǰ״̬,˫
ȷ۵ʹ,ʹԷȫŷ,Ԥɹ۷
Ҳδ,޹ʶ,ͬҪһоͷչйĽ
ʱաȻ,VANоܹڼϵͳԤʵо,һ
˳ɹԤ,ǵԤѵĶԤ;Թһר
ҵ,ܹд൱ѧݡ൱˵Ĵ,ЩVANԤ
ȫԤоȡýչҪ,Ӧֿ϶Ϊ,VAN
Ԥйرһα,ĿǰԤоȡóչ, δͻ,
Ԥоֱۺ͹ֹ۵ĿûݵġԤоʵ
Ӧڼȥȣ

6Tectonics

ǸĵĽۣԤ

We have documented Quaternary activity on a set of large 
northeast-striking faults that parallel the eastern margin of the 
Tibetan Plateau, using a combination of fieldFigure 16. Field photo 
of steeply dipping, clast-supportedcobble conglomerate of the Dayi 
Formation near Baitahu, 10 km northeast of Dayi. See Figure 15 for 
location. View is to the northeast. Clasts are dominantly 
subrounded-rounded cobbles of granitic rocks, with minor limestone and 
sandstone. Matrix is reddish-tan silty sand. Crude bedding defined by 
sand bed and aligned conglomerate clasts defines an open monocline 
(hinge shown by dashed line). Active trace of Dayi fault is 200 m to 
the southeast (to the right). Figure 17. Map view of small channel 
offset by the Dayi fault near Baitahu. See Figure 15 for location. 
Black dots show survey points along the top of the southwestern 
channel bank, which is dextrally offset 28  2 m. observations, photo 
and image interpretation, and 10Be exposure dating of offset 
depositional landforms. The northeast-trending Beichuan, Pengguan, and 
Dayi faults,which parallel the eastern margin of the Tibetan 
Plateau,have been active in the latest Quaternary with a dominantly 
dextral sense of slip. Apparent throw rates are highly spatially 
variable but are typically <1 mm yr 1. Compelling and widespread 
geomorphic evidence for dominant dextral strike-slip displacement 
suggests to us that total displacement rates may be at least several 
millimeters per year. The Beichuan and Pengguan faults have 
experienced surface rupture during the latest Pleistocene and at some 
ocations during the Holocene. The faults are sufficiently long to 
sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially 
serious sources of regional seismic hazard

7

⣬һûҵԤ־ҪĹ涨Ҳ̸ʲô
ʧְ

ҹΨһԤְܵĹҡ

ҲֻԤһҲԤ

ԤһģԤҲһģл
ƶȵġ

8ԤܱûԤ

ɽ󣬹εԤ©

6µԤǸͳѧۣ鱨ɵʧȵ
ʵʷʧ󡣣Σ

Ԥ򵥼һ£ҹÿʧƽ20ң봨֮ǰ
ͳƣڵˣģԤͶ10죬׼ȷʻ10%㡣
ִ10Σҹÿ630ң10ңȫ⣬
ҪԤ100Σ֣ܲͳѧˣÿһʡ
ԤⷶΧôȷȫ20ʡˡ20ʡGDP۰10
ڼ㣬ƽһʡ5000ڡԤһֹͣ10첻øɻ
ʧGDP򵥹5000ڡ10/360=138ڣһԤ100ξ1.38ڡ
ͷ3800ڰɡʵƽʧ 20ڣʵǲ㰡봨
30һɣ1976-2008ʧ10000ڣƽһ300ڣǲ
㡣Ԥ׼ȷֻ1%Ļʲôøˡ

޼⣬ƶ޼۵ģҶ˯ȥ
ˣӶûǡ

9ԤίԱ

һȺαѧģ˵ˡ

ģԴͲд

һ֣Ӻ˵£Ǵӳ̩Ժʿժ¼ġ

˷ƶµ

˷ƶµԤҲǻڡۡʥ
˹ϲ㿿˷ƶ(2080ʱһ37˵С)һζϲ
ϣ¼3 M6𣬼192219341966˷ƶ
𣻶¼ǰҲ3M6𣬼185718811901
˷ƶµƽÿ22طһ˷ƶµ˷ƶƽ
22㷢һM6ĹԼ19341966˷ƶµǰ
ͼ֮ʵʹõѧЩ˷ƶµԴԼͬ
ĻԼ22ͬһζϲѡɡͬλơϲ㻬
ıֵĵ𸴷ʱҲǴԼ22(Bakun and McEvilly19791984
Bakun and Iindh1985)ЩԼйϣʵ
(USGS)1984귢ʽĵԤ(Shearer1985)ȷָʥ˹
(San Andreas)ϲ㿿˷ƶµһζϲϣ(198843)(
1993֮ǰ)һM6𣬷ԼΪ95%
1993ףԤе˷ƶµûзʵ
رա˷ƶµԤġڡ긴һ꣬ е
˷ƶµһֱΪˣѧҶ˷ƶµٳδ
͡磬һֽǣ1983귢ڼݿּ (Coalinga)ĵ
˷ƶµӦ(Simpson et al1988)һֽǣ1906
ɽɽӦɳЧӦƳ˷ƶµķ(BenZion etal
1993)һֽǣ˷ƶµпܸͲ𣬶һ
¼(Kagan1997).
1993ףԤе˷ƶµһֱûзʵ
رաԤġڡȻˣ˵ǣԤ
˷ƶµļ⹤ûСرա˷ƶµԤ
ֵ̨ǰ׵ļ⹤(Lindh2003) 200492817ʱ15
24(Эʱ)ѧڼв˷ƶµ鳡غMw 
60(λ35815N120374W Դ79 km)ڷˡ
˷ƶµ٣Ԥʱ11꣬λˡ
Ȼǰδ⵽Ҳδеǰףɶ豸
ĸӵǰ̨¼ʷ¼Ϊʵһεӷǰʱ
ọ̈̄ȡ˵ԡӦشųص糡ˮ
ǿҵ˶ȵȵļ¼Щ¼˽
ʼġδġֹͣģԶϲ㡢α䡢Դ
̡Ԥ⡢Ԥͼֺʶṩ˺мֵ(Bakun et 
al2005Lindh2005)
˷ƶµԤ龭˴Ԥо(19791984)Ԥ
(1985)ȫչ(1985)ٳٲǹرԤڡ
(1993)ֱԤеĵ(2004)ķ֮һ͵̡˷
µ鳡ĵԤʵǿԿ
(1)ǰ6˷ƶµȽϣ2004928˷ƶµ
(Mw60)Щ˷ƶµصһ£Ҳͬ
һζϲϣ⣬ε19341966˷ƶµ
ơԿ˵˷ƶµ𼶺ѷΧԤˡǷʱ
ûбԣ11!ѧһ
ϲظʱ(ʱ)Ϊʲôô仯ȱʶ
гԤģдĽ
(2)2004˷ƶµѶε˵ǰ˷ƶµ
һѷʽҲһǴһʼȻһչġ ѷ
ʽǣǰ˷ƶµͬεѲǴӱ
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ʼ㡢ֹԼչġǴ˷ƶµԤ
õµʶһµʶڵֺԤ⡢ԷҪ!
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ġ
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