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1974ʯ̽ʦˡűΪǡߴԡ
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ѧԺҵġһ߷Υʡȷ֪ʶ
͹۲һЩ˼ʹǵרҵߵרҵҵǱ
ҵʱ̫磬Խʮѧ۵²ϡչ൱֪
ǵԤ롣

(XYS20090512)

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(XYS20090512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

Ҳǵҵమ

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(XYS20090512)

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ʿfǵҲǡһѧĿоһֱæûʱ˼
봨ǲܱģǰϢ̫١

(XYS20090512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

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ڶ꼴1997꣬ձѧѧϵĸ
Robert J. Gellerڵ314ճScience־ϷһƪΪ
Ԥ[2]˴ĵԤָԤһ
ڿѧǿҷ죬ʱй߲Ĺע

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ݡ

һƪԵδйй߲񾭣֮ܵ


յ˷ΪԤҪǵһ֡
֯ٽ״̬ self-organized criticalityκһСı䶯
иʱͿռ߶ȵĽϴ䶯Ҳ˵ٽ״̬һС
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ȷʵǲȶġˣӦýصתѧ繤̿ϡ

ټ

Σһйصܷ׼ȷԤٴ顣

¼ʮоƳֲͬǷֲģ
ʱ䡢κεص㶼Էģ֯ٽеޱȣ߶ȣֻǸ


ͨͳչʾͼ˵Сһĵر
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ǻûл㹻ܡϸĹ۲ݣرڶϲϵݡ

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ģ似ԭõŲ𲨵ٶȲԼPS
ȲʵֵļʱԤ

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⡣ʵϣǵɱˣǽﱾô
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ǿѧûдﵽһˮƽʱ֪ľ޷صʧ

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ڶҪ̩ߡѧš

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Ԥܽ˵

ʵϰҶԱйף

οף

[1] Nature, 1997, 385, 19-20

[2] Science, 1997, 275, 1616

[3]йѧD: ѧ, 2009, 39, 1-10

[4]йѧԺԺ, 2008, 234, 311-316

(XYS20090512)

˿(www.xys.org)(xys3.dxiong.com)(www.xysforum.org)(xys2.dropin.org)

ԤĿѧ

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ѧš˫ܿ20099

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缤˾޴飬ͨѶձѧѧҸգRobert J. 
GellerҲΪһԤ

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յƪһҪ۵㣬Ϊһ֯ٽ
SOC״̬κСпܷչΪһδ

ʵϹڵǷܹԤڸյ˵֮ǰѾ˼ʮ
ۣSOCģ2090֮ǰݴ𲻿Ԥ
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ʾʹSOCģǳģóԤⲻ
ܡĽҲԵùڲִٺͼ򵥻ΪSOCģ͵۵㣬
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2060ʼдģĵԤоָԵ
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ԤһĵĺߣҲǰ׷ЧΪ̫ӡ̫ϡ
ˡʹǰ״ڣ۲ҲԵԤ⣬Ϊǰʱն䡣

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Կ϶ܻ֧־ѡԴʵֵ
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ѧ绹ûдĹʶ

ιԱйף

οף

[1]Science, 1997, 275, 1616

[2]Science, 1997, 278, 487-490

[3]ʵ̬, 1999, 7, 22-24

[4]й, 1998, 144,1-10

[5]й, 1999, 51,14-22

[6]о, 2001, 172, 1-7

[7]йѧԺԺ, 2008, 234, 311-316

(XYS20090512)

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ϼĿݲݲ֮

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ҪŮԿ̲Լѧ

ߣPLGN

γǷҽѧĸɽ֮һЩ
ȷĪģȶһ۴ŲΪҽѧ
ɡ

58յӡԤǡƣͨԡ
ΪԼѧᵽĴ󣬲ҰЩ
ΪﶼŮ£Ҿ߼⡣

εĵһǴ̫ս£ʱڴ
̫ԥǲʱ򣬴һϢ˵ʹҪ͢
̫ڹʵۡڶҪҡ̫
ͳȨ̫ŴѶ󱯷߽ӣ߳ŭóԼ˽Ǯ
ʮţҪǰڻ˸Ͼɱйͷ֮ޡ
ΰʾµıŮݡ

λǿԿ̫ĵԣ1. Ȩܴ2. ˵һ
Ϣֱӵˣ3ΪάԼɵӰһζɡǿ
һŮ˵ֱӵµġ

1. ᴫͳĿ̰ӡŮ˵ıҪ˳ӣҪСˡ
ҪҪԸ ܡȻôȨô
Ҫ˵һ˶ߣûһҪܣҪС
ˡĸоҴҪ۽װְ֡һپƫ˴ͳ
ŮԽɫ˰ɡһԭΪŮˣͺñΪ110
¼˵й˶ʺﾶ˶һ

2. Ŵԣ֤͵档Ҷ֪ȥһû
֤˵ָĳ쵼֧֡ɴȫؼ
աҾȥļָſڣһѶзҫ
һôأĪЩзȫŮװ?

3. ֮60꣬һ޴˸аʵ飬
ǧˡλʽϵĹԪǸ޴˵ʳҶҪд
ʷŶǸ޴ﱯ߽ӣ߳ŭΪԼ
Һ棬ϧϼӴ˸ѡǸ޴
ʲôԱ

ɼôȫŮ˵ɶƲˡ

εĵڶ⸱ͦҽЩ鶼ˡŮ˷衱
Ƿˡ.ŷ衱ʲô裩ϵ֪2003׼
ҽ뿹ǵĹʱҽ뿹ǵĹ
ҽҩоԺΪѧԺǵҽҩᡱҽҩĿѧ
 

ȫû⼸·ǵôŮǶȲ⣬ӱĽǶȶ
ⲻˡǡǡ෴Ů˵ĽǶⲻˡΪǰôô
, ֵĹԺļ
ǹϵĳԱĽǶ⣬Ǿͺˡҽ̨ģ
ǸԾ޴ɵġһ̲ͣͦҽҲռ
йϵһ̲ͣҲ˴йڵ
ǸϵҪ󡰴δʵļơⲻͦҽֳԼ
֪ͦͳˡٳȻѡ񡱵Ļƾ

Цǣ£йʲô¡ɡЮ
ҽҩ־ֳǿʣһСɡ£
ǶŮ˸ģӡŮֳŮΪ
ˡŮ˷衱Բȡʵжͦҽ¼ˡŮ˷衱
ôͲʱֹأ

ҾãమѧͲѧôԼݣ
ҿʲôֵýġִʧˣŮϾͧ봬
棩սˣǰͷ­ѪŮڰȫĴ󷽡
ںƽŮ˿ԿһˣɷȾͿõʴʵĻ
ױѣҪͣ汼۲Ų¶ӣʱʱج
ġСкˣһۣ㿴̣
ɡ˵Ů˼һѣǡڶԡʲôֵýġ
ںԼһúòãںѻĴȥ
Ӧ÷һΪٵ̣Ů˵ֵһԼ
صĸΪӪĻŬأ

(XYS20090512)

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й

ߣ
http://blog.sina.com.cn/usafa

ɫ䡷ͷ˸ߺй

ϾϾûҲСйľͷ

ӹȻϣܲɷãд£ҽЧۡ
ӷ̸ҽҩΪβܷμС

ӿġţٵط⣬ˡ
ѵ⼸һһǡһ֪һСӵʦ

ѵǳӵĻش߼߼⣬
ͬ

йҽͬйϴġ
Сӡ

񳪡ǵͷϿȥȷʵ޵ĿУ

ձһ·󵶹

ŰҩãйϾǱƣ

ɸ֮йˣ

(XYS20090512)

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Ҳ̸ʹ

ߣCD

1. ҽЩкܴȣʮ꣬
ڵҪǣҽϷ벻ߣѵ淶ҽԺҽԴ
ȣҽԺ̫࣬ҽѹǳ󣬼ϵƣȵȡ
ҪĻҪȻȥˣҪӦҪ뻹
ܶũȱҽҩϣµһҽƸĸҹҽˮƽ

2. ڹڿõȽϺõķ͹գҹϵˣ
ǶԼҲҪھܲܺõķĿǰй
һ콨ɵġÿ½һĿٵıս𣬿
Ҳ鷳òõġ

3. СðҪҽԺЩҩעϢˮ
ˡȷʵȽأȥһʼȥҽԺ϶Һ
룬СȥҽҽҺ֮Сˣλҽ
Ի鷳ҳʡҩҽôģҽû
˽ͣΥ˵ĳʶ

4. ʹ¼˵ð̫ˣΡСҽƷ
ˡҪ׷εĻʬ죬ȻҽƼʦ

5. ΪҽԱԣӦģҪְҵء

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˵˵Ľͳǰ޹˽µ

ߣjhuang

°·漰˽µݣ

1.    Ľͳһֱ椡һĺͨ˲һ֮࣬
ʮֲи͵ʳҼֱЩ⣬ܴ
Բ״̬

2.    Ů17ֵעЩѺܶ඼Ĵģ
4ζ̥ҳߣڹ֧ڹѧҵԭ
Ůѡ⣬ΪһᣬŮ鲹Ӧ
õ֧֣ͥҿһЩӢһЩ˾ַѶܾ
ˣȻǷͥоվŮһߡΪȽϷĳ̶ȣþ
ǱȽ飬ḧȨӵĹ˾ƽһ˾漰˼
ϵǳӣ°һһУʹһЩңձ
ҲӢȹڲСĲࡣ

3.    þףݵķ˾ȵȡ

4.    ĸ˵ƭΪڿ׷ŮΪ֤ȵȡ

Ȼ漰˽£ýϹҿȫȡǷ˵
ʵ

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˿и

ߣͬһλУʦ

˿ʵߣ칫ҵĵһ¾żڶ¾
ǲ鿴˿ҳ淢ϢҿһУʦдĹ
˿һģеɱֿ̾ǸǿϮ
ԡ鹦ڡƶȣӶﵽתעеĿġSCIĵ
ҪԵȻǲԶģڹ⣬ѧ߾˵publish or perishSCI
һλѧߵѧˮƽȻԣй൥λ
һָʦѧУˮƽҲǺġȻʲôû
ڹڣ֪ЩνĸֽôģֻSCIģ
Թƽ빫һѧߵˮƽ

̸Ϯ˵ʲôܶʦǲԸϮġҲţ
һλС͵һҲ˵С͵ʵǲԸ͵ģֻΪ
ѡ˵ǵͲΪǲԸ͵
ʲôһ߼ͨͶֶλȡ棬Լõ
ѧܸߵۣҲ䵱УʦҺ𾪣Ҳܾȣ
ŵǣйУĳЩʦȻ޳̶ֳܵȣԭ
ִ³Լ֮飡˿ǡǡͨ¶һһ
Ϯ¼ﵽʾߣѧá編ɣͨһ
֮ԷʾߣԴﵽٷʵĿģͬ
֮

ңáһλУʦ˼άң֪ơ˵УԼеλǿ
SCI¾ᳫλУʦӦᳫʲôᳫ
ֻǮ£ֻύһνо棿⣬
λУʦʲôģʲôֲģǰ
ݴν綨ģѧ˵ڶǳ
˵ܶУʦͶȡɣйУĲңҸΪ˿
ǡǡӦǼӴعȡ˵Ҫṩһƽ̨оνƶȣǾ
ӦνһͷƶȣһλʦоԱͨϮ
ֶηģ˾ͲӦѧ죬Ӧ߳ѧ磬
䵱ʦȥһ

λУʦɣҪڽóΪ
˿ĽϣҪѣΪѧʣӦ
ģ

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˿ƾΪ

ߣһУݽʦ

    ˡһУʦġ˿úܸЦ

    ȻǡΪ͵гֵ֤ԼġΪȷġ
ͨƪ֤߼ƫȫ

    գо̸о˵ڶǳʡ
֤ݣ𣺡˿ϾͿصҲ֤
ˣĬûлش𡣡

    ѧƫȫˣʦĬش𡱣ȫƿ϶жϲ
ǿõƷжöĽ۲ǿһ
λУʦӦֱ׳ػش𣺡ʦʹû飩

    оѳϮѧʦϮߵʱҸе
ı

    㷸˺ѧͬĴҸҿ϶ѧᡰѳϮ
һЩϮߣѧᡰʦϮߡѧֻ
ͼѱ˵ĴԼĽڡʹѵ˵Ϊ˲Ҫ
ѧѽٵ¸ɲѽҲ˵ãҾ첻ã

    Ϊһ֪һЩѧʵʦҲʶһЩʵʵѧʡ
Ϯѧߡ˵ڳϮǶǵ裿ǣ
ĵϮʱȴһЩʵˣµǰѧʵľ
ˣ

    ˿ֻ¶ٵ£ҲϮ
ǽ¶ϮĶѧߡʦҲֻǸͷ
Ϯǵ衱һƫȫ

    ΪܶʦǲԸϮģ֮ԳֳϮų֣
Ǿ˵ȣƶյΪ潡

    Ϊ߱绤⻹ǱƣٶԡܶʦԸϮ
ҲвʦרųϮٵԭȫƣ˴
ʦԺáʳڡΪ嶷Ǽߣ

    ǽ¶ʦˣʵϾͰʦεļĲ㡣ʦ
ϽȻ޴棬ʦѻָȻʦôѧ
Ŭѧ绹ѧϰỹ𣿡

    ˿ȴŻҲеͬʱ⣬Լ
ûܵѧӶɥʧϡƫȫ

    ͣΪҵǰᡪʦǲԸϮģǴģҵ
ҲûʲôֵҲԹң

    ԸϮʦļ壬ҲԸⳭϮĸ壬ԡʦ
ΪǼϸжȻƫȫ

    ۣ˿治Ҫ

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ԡˮֲ㣬ؼСabadaѲͬĵ

ߣDW

һյˮϵͳ:

ɳµһؼQ/T.ܼ U1ɳܺɳµ
ܴݸˮ,ˮ,(Q+(U1-U2))/TU2ɳ³,ˮ̧
ˮܵ, һС, СU1ܵر
[(Q+(U1-U2))/T - Q/T]>0 

ͨǽӴˮϵͳǷϵͳ,һµѹϵͳ
ɳµ,һش˻ˮ,ˮϵͳؼ
һձĽۡ 

(XYS20090512)

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